KEY SURVEY FINDINGS:
• Voters give Maloney positive marks on his work in Congress and a +23 advantage on personal favorability. Nearly half of voters (48%) give Maloney a positive rating on his job in Congress, compared to only 31% who give him a negative rating. Maloney gets even higher marks from voters who are his existing constituents, with 55% giving him positive marks on his work in Congress and only 29% giving him a negative rating. And voters are twice as likely to have a favorable opinion of Maloney (46%) than have an unfavorable opinion (23%).
• Maloney’s opponent is largely unknown. Republican Colin Schmitt is known to only 28% of NY-18 voters, with 15% holding a favorable opinion of him and 13% having an unfavorable opinion of him. Nearly three quarters of voters – the remaining 72% — are unable to rate him. Schmitt is undefined even among voters critical to his campaign: among the district’s voters who supported Trump in 2020, 20% are favorable to Schmitt while 13% are unfavorable.
• As a result of Maloney’s strong standing with voters, he enters the race with a 12-point lead over Schmitt. If the race for Congress were held today, 49% of voters would back Maloney, 37% would back Schmitt, and 14% say they are undecided. Even after balanced messaging intended to simulate equal campaign resources from both the Maloney and Schmitt campaigns, the match up remains relatively unchanged. After voters are exposed to positive messaging about both Maloney and Schmitt, Maloney maintains a double-digit lead: 50% say they would vote for Maloney, 40% say they would support Schmitt, and 10% are undecided.